Chicago VGT: Where It Stands, and Where It Goes Next
United Gaming Advisors / Monte Cristo Gaming — September 24, 2026
Nine months after the City Council legalized video gaming terminals, Chicago has state-approved locations, a budget that counted on the revenue, and a casino operator threatening to sue over it. It still doesn't have a single machine running. This piece separates what's true today from what's likely next.
Where we stand
The law. VGTs are legal in Chicago. The Council lifted the city's ban in the December 2025 budget, with roughly 31 aldermen in support. Mayor Johnson's attempt to repeal legalization in June needed 26 votes. The committee hearing ended without a vote, and the repeal hasn't moved since.
The state. The Illinois Gaming Board is doing its part. The first six Chicago locations were approved in June, and about 65 had state approval by the September 9 Council hearing.
The city. This is where it breaks. A state approval doesn't let a bar turn on a machine. The location also needs a city license, and the city hasn't issued one. City licenses issued: 0. Terminals live: 0.
The casino. Bally's says VGTs violate its Host Community Agreement's ban on the city authorizing new forms of gambling. It has put roughly 12% of its $1.7 billion River West resort (theater, convention space, some restaurants, greenspace) on hold and laid off 136 construction workers. It has also threatened litigation. It still paid its $4 million annual city fee on September 9, and it still targets an early-2027 opening with an event center and the first 100 hotel rooms.
The money. The 2026 budget assumed $6.8 million in VGT revenue, based on 3,300 eligible establishments with 80% applying. Collected so far: $0. Bally's says VGTs would cost the city $70–74 million a year and cut its own revenue by 30–50%. A city consultant study reportedly found legalization could cost the city about $3 million net. The Civic Federation wants that study released before this fall's budget debate.
The shadow market. About 7,000 unlicensed sweepstakes machines are operating across the city right now, untaxed. A ban on them failed in June.
Who holds the cards
Mayor Johnson controls the licensing pen. As long as his administration doesn't issue city licenses, nothing turns on, and no Council vote is needed to keep it that way.
The Council's VGT bloc (led by Ald. Beale) has the votes that legalized VGTs and has so far blocked repeal. What it doesn't control is the administration's licensing machinery.
Bally's has leverage (construction, jobs, the $4 million payment, a lawsuit threat) but a weak balance sheet. A going-concern warning in its filings and a negative Fitch outlook mean a long fight costs it too.
Bars, restaurants and operators hold state approvals they can't use.
Where it could go
These are our probabilities as of September 24, 2026, covering roughly the next nine months (through mid-2027). They're judgment calls, and we'll update them as the signals below arrive.
A. The slow-walk continues: 40%
What happens: No repeal, no activation. The administration keeps city licensing frozen, and the 2027 budget quietly drops or re-books the VGT line. State approvals pile up with nowhere to go. Signal to watch: Whether the mayor's 2027 budget proposal, expected in October under the usual calendar, still counts VGT revenue. What it means for you: No Chicago machines before mid-2027 at the earliest. Keep state approvals current, but don't spend capital.
B. The Council forces the rollout: 25%
What happens: The VGT bloc uses budget season as leverage. It either ties budget votes to licensing or passes an ordinance ordering the city to process licenses on a deadline. The first terminals switch on in early-to-mid 2027, starting with the locations that already have state approval. Signal to watch: An ordinance with a licensing deadline, or the License Committee's promised follow-up hearing with the mayor's office. What it means for you: Locations already approved by the state go first. Being in the state queue now is the head start.
C. A negotiated bargain: 25%
What happens: VGTs survive in a narrower form. That could mean ward opt-outs, a terminal cap, geographic limits or higher fees, possibly alongside a sweepstakes crackdown and Bally's airport slot lounges. In return, Bally's resumes the paused construction and drops the legal threat, and the HCA gets amended. Signal to watch: An HCA amendment on a Council agenda, or Bally's announcing it's restarting the paused amenities. What it means for you: A smaller, more expensive market than the one the budget imagined. Location quality and ward matter more than being first.
D. Frozen by a court or a repeal: 10%
What happens: Bally's files suit and seeks an injunction, or the mayor finds 26 votes to reinstate the ban. Either way, Chicago VGTs are on ice into 2028. Signal to watch: A complaint filed in court, or the repeal ordinance moving out of committee. What it means for you: Chicago stays off the table as a near-term market. Suburban and collar-county growth is the play.
Wildcards: Bally's finances. If its funding tightens further, its leverage shrinks, or it pushes for concessions harder. The 7,000 sweepstakes machines are the other one. Any city or state move against them changes the revenue math for everyone in this fight.
The next 90 days: what to watch
• October: the mayor's 2027 budget proposal. Is VGT revenue in it or not?
• Fall: the License Committee follow-up hearing, if the mayor's office shows up.
• Early November (typical timing): Bally's next quarterly report. Look for construction plans, liquidity and litigation language.
• By year-end: the Council's 2027 budget vote, the VGT bloc's best leverage point.
Our read
Chicago VGTs aren't dead. They're parked. The most likely path is a continued stall through budget season, followed by either a Council-forced rollout or a negotiated deal in 2027. Together, B and C (50%) are slightly more likely than the stall itself, and both end with machines in Chicago. The question is when and how many, not whether. If your business depends on a date, plan on mid-2027 or later.
What to do now
If you're a location with state approval: keep it current, and lock in your terminal operator agreement and your floor plan. Don't buy anything that only pays off with a 2026 launch.
If you're a location that hasn't applied: the state queue is the only line that's moving. See whether you qualify on our Chicago video gaming page (https://www.montecristogaming.com/chicago-video-gaming-info) or check your eligibility (https://www.montecristogaming.com/check-your-eligibility).
If you're an operator: treat Chicago as an option, not a forecast. Model it separately from your core Illinois route.
Want a read on your specific location or route? Get in touch (https://www.montecristogaming.com/contact).
Sources: Chicago Sun-Times, Sept 9 hearing (https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2026/09/09/ballys-permanent-casino-river-west-construction-slowdown-video-gambling-terminals-city-council-license-committee) · Chicago Sun-Times, mayor's repeal bid (https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2026/06/11/mayor-brandon-johnson-repeal-video-gambling-bid-chicago) · WTTW, first state licenses (https://news.wttw.com/2026/06/12/state-approves-1st-video-gambling-licenses-chicago-mayor-asks-city-council-reverse) · Gambling.com (http://Gambling.com), zero machines (https://www.gambling.com/news/chicago-vgt-rollout-stuck-at-zero-machines-after-8-months) · Yogonet, Bally's reaffirms (https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/09/15/126401-ballys-reaffirms-17b-chicago-casino-commitment-amid-vgt-dispute) · NBC Chicago, Bally's finances (https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/ballys-says-its-chicago-casino-will-open-on-time-despite-financial-issues/3978163/) · Yogonet, airport lounge proposal (https://www.yogonet.com/international/news/2026/06/26/125110-bally-39s-proposes-airport-slot-lounges-as-alternative-to-chicago-video-gambling-expansion)
