Honest Revenue Projections Win Locations: Lessons From an Illinois Forecast Tool

United Gaming Advisors — September 29, 2026

Revenue projections are where distributed gaming sales go wrong. Inflate them and you win the signature but lose the relationship when reality arrives. Monte Cristo Gaming's Project Your Revenue tool takes a different approach: let the owner build the forecast, and show them where it lands against every location in the state.

The model

Five inputs: number of games, average bet, bets per minute, hold percentage, and machine occupancy across four dayparts. Outputs: amount played, net terminal income, win per unit per day, and the establishment's estimated share. The feature that matters most is the benchmark bar, which places the result against the Illinois median, top 25% and top 10% win per unit.

The lesson in the numbers

Using Illinois-typical play assumptions, the gap between a median location (about $92 WPU per day) and a top-10% location (about $263) comes down to machines being in play roughly 6% of the day versus 18%. Same machines, same hold, nearly three times the revenue. The difference is occupancy, and occupancy is execution: the room, the service and the reasons players have to stay.

That's the core insight we bring to every market-entry engagement. In a parity-product category, operators differentiate on how well locations perform, not on the machines themselves.

Build it honestly

• Anchor to public benchmarks. Show the median, not just the best case.

• Get the split right. In Illinois, 35% of NTI goes to state and local tax and a small administrative fee comes off the top before the statutory 50/50 split, leaving each party roughly 32%. Every jurisdiction's waterfall is different, and owners notice when a model gets it wrong.

• Label it clearly. Illustrative estimates, not guarantees.

About this series: Monte Cristo Gaming is an Illinois video gaming terminal operator founded by United Gaming Advisors principal Chris Schink. It is a separate company from United Gaming Advisors. We use its owner-facing tools as working examples of what we help operators build in other markets. United Gaming Advisors does not currently offer consulting services in Illinois.

Building owner-facing tools, a loyalty program or a market-entry plan in your jurisdiction? Book a consultation.